CM Outlook Market

In our latest commentary we discuss:

  • We believe the cause of this week’s market sell-off (other than stretched valuations in many companies) is due to the concern over rising interest rates, which the Fed is raising in an effort to head off the potential of higher inflation.
  • From everything we can see today, we believe the U.S. economy is doing well. Even after the recent market volatility and pullback, we are encouraged by the fact that a majority of our indicators are showing no signs of a recession for the foreseeable future.
  • We do not believe that this is the beginning of a major bear market. Instead, we believe this is a correction within a major bull market.
  • We believe there is a rotation into value stocks from growth stocks and that our basket of stocks at Century Management continue to represent very good values.

Click here to access the full report. 

Disclosures: 

This material is for informational use only and is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. CM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

CM is an independent registered investment adviser. More information about the advisor including its investment strategies and objectives can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact CM at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.


 

Oil and Gas Discovery Levels 2

We at CM believe that an oil shortage is coming:

  • Global oil consumption is over 35 billion barrels annually.  
  • Global discoveries of oil and natural gas in 2017 totaled only 6.7 billion barrels annually of oil equivalence - a level last seen in the 1940s. 
  • Average oil discoveries over the past 6 years have been approximately 15 billion annually
  • Since 2014, exploration expenditures fell over 60 percent due to low oil prices and cash flow. 

Disclosures: 

The source for data sited in the bullet points is Oil and Gas Journal.  The viewpoint featured is not intended to be personalized investment advice. There can be no assurances that we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 


CM in the news white2

Forbes interviewed Jim Brilliant on June 22, 2018 about our belief that oil prices are going higher and the opportunities that we see in energy.  In this interview Jim states that:

  • We believe that oil prices are going higher.
  • We believe that the IEA has underestimated demand for energy.
  • Energy demand from India and China is growing exponentially.
  • We are finding value in the offshore drillers.

Click here to access the full report. 

Disclosures: 

This material is for informational use only and is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. CM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

Century Management is an independent registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Century Management is also registered as a Portfolio Manager in the Province of Ontario. More information about the advisor, including its investment strategies and objectives, can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact Century Management at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.

 


 

Oil Shortage 2018

 As recent as six months ago, much of the world was convinced that oil prices would remain lower for longer, with most experts anticipating oil prices would remain in a band between $40 and $60 for a very long time. It was thought that demand was peaking, shale had boundless growth, and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) had abundant spare capacity. However, the fundamentals of oil (supply/demand and oil inventories) have forced this consensus view to change. 

Click here to access the full report. 

 

Disclosures: 

Century Management reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that the sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. 

Century Management is an independent registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Century Management is also registered as a Portfolio Manager in the Province of Ontario. More information about the advisor, including its investment strategies and objectives, can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact Century Management at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.

 

 


 Bull Bear Image

We believe the recent market decline is part of a normal bull market correction, and not the beginning of a long, protracted market decline or bear market.  Within this Century Management update, Market Appears to Be in a Correction, Not a Bear Market, we discuss the following:

  •  What's changed?
  • What do we expect at this time?
  • How can we tell the difference between a bull market correction and the beginning of a bear market?
  • What we believe about the current environment

Click here to access the full report. 

Disclosures: 

This material is for informational use only and is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. CM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

CM is an independent registered investment adviser. More information about the advisor including its investment strategies and objectives can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact CM at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.


 

CM in the news white2

Jim Brilliant, CFA, CIO, and Century Management portfolio manager has been interviewed by Bloomberg Businessweek, Barron's, Reuters, and Market Watch.  He has also been featured in an on air interview by Bloomberg Radio.  The following are quotes or excerpts from those interviews:

 US capitol dome

Should investors worry about a federal government shutdown?  We believe the history of government shutdowns suggests that investors can sleep soundly in the week ahead. 

Click here to read Market Performance and Government Shutdowns  

Disclosures: 

This material is for informational use only and is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. CM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

CM is an independent registered investment adviser. More information about the advisor including its investment strategies and objectives can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact CM at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.


Arnold Van Den Berg provides Century Management's current market and economic outlook.

Disclosures:

Century Management reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that the sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable.

The CM Value I Composite primarily invests in stocks, bonds, and cash. The focus of this composite is to find undervalued securities that over time will produce above average returns with a lower degree of risk than that of the general market. Portfolios in this composite are not constrained by market capitalization (size). Therefore, a significant portion of portfolio assets may be invested in micro cap, small cap, medium cap, large cap, or mega cap companies with one market capitalization being more heavily weighted over the other at any given time. In addition, there are times where portfolios in this composite will be invested in bonds and cash. Historically, cash and cash equivalent positions have ranged from 2% to 60% of the composite for extended periods of time. However, the long term average has been approximately 21%. The CM Value I Composite was created September 16, 1974. Prior to 2004 the composite was named the CM Standard Value Composite. Prior to 2010 the composite could have accounts with up to 30% fixed income mandates.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the 3000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. The Russell 3000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 3000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 3000 Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 92% of the market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index  It is not possible to invest directly in the indices.

Past performance of markets, composites, or any individual securities is no guarantee of future results. The performance of accounts in any Century Management (“CM”) strategy may be materially different at any given time. Differences that may affect investment performance include strategy type, cash flows, inception dates, historical prices, and fees.

Positions held within each individual account may not be the same from one account to the next. Individual securities may be traded at different times as well as receive different execution prices. In addition, individual accounts may be pursuing similar objectives but may have different investment restrictions.

Certain statements included herein contain forward-looking statements, comments, beliefs, assumptions, targets and opinions that are based on Century Management’s current expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions, targets and beliefs. Words such as expects, anticipates, believes, estimates, projects, targets and any variations of such words or other similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements.

These statements, beliefs, projections, comments, opinions, assumptions, and targets are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, that reflect Century Management’s judgment only as of the date hereof. Century Management disclaims any responsibility to update its views, as well as any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise.

Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind, including, without limitation, no warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of the material.

Century Management is an independent registered investment adviser. A full description of Century Management’s investment strategies and risks are supplied in our Form ADV Part 2. To receive Form ADV Part 2 or if you have any questions about this report, please contact your client service representative at 1-800-664-4888, write to us at 805 Las Cimas Parkway, Suite 430, Austin, Texas 78746, or email us via our website at www.centman.com. You may find ADV Part 2 at www.centman.com

 

 


 Oil pic blue640x360

Summary:

  • Oil demand is growing stronger than estimated.
  • We believe shale production growth is set up to disappoint.
  • Global oil liquids inventory is declining.
  • Combined, we believe these factors should lead to higher prices for oil and energy related stocks.

Click here to download the full report in PDF format

 

Disclosures

Century Management reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that the sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable.

 Past performance of markets, composites, or any individual securities is no guarantee of future results. The performance of accounts in any Century Management (“CM”) strategy may be materially different at any given time. Differences that may affect investment performance include strategy type, cash flows, inception dates, historical prices, and fees.

Positions held within each individual account may not be the same from one account to the next. Individual securities may be traded at different times as well as receive different execution prices. In addition, individual accounts may be pursuing similar objectives but may have different investment restrictions.

Certain statements included herein contain forward-looking statements, comments, beliefs, assumptions, targets and opinions that are based on Century Management’s current expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions, targets and beliefs. Words such as expects, anticipates, believes, estimates, projects, targets and any variations of such words or other similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements.

These statements, beliefs, projections, comments, opinions, assumptions, and targets are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, that reflect Century Management’s judgment only as of the date hereof. Century Management disclaims any responsibility to update its views, as well as any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise.

Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind, including, without limitation, no warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of the material.

Century Management is an independent registered investment adviser. A full description of Century Management’s investment strategies and risks are supplied in our Form ADV Part 2. To receive Form ADV Part 2 or if you have any questions about this report, please contact your client service representative at 1-800-664-4888, write to us at 805 Las Cimas Parkway, Suite 430, Austin, Texas 78746, or email us via our website at www.centman.com. You may find ADV Part 2 at www.centman.com. 


 

Century Management's Brilliant Says Oil Industry Resilient to Storms

 

 

James Brilliant, Century Management Investment Advisors co-CIO, discusses the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the oil industry with Bloomberg's Julia Chatterley and Joe Weisenthal on "What'd You Miss?" (Source: Bloomberg).