For the U.S. economy, we believe the largest impact of the UK leaving the EU, at least in the short run, is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. An increase in the value of the U.S. dollar could lead to tighter financial conditions, though we don’t believe this will be enough to push the U.S. into a recession. Along with other mixed U.S. economic data points, the Brexit vote will likely force the Fed to continue its easy monetary policy. We see this as bullish for commodities such as gold, oil and other hard assets over the long run.
Disclosures: Numbers shown in this report have been rounded.
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