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OUR LATEST INSIGHTS

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CM's Perspective on the Brexit Vote

For the U.S. economy, we believe the largest impact of the UK leaving the EU, at least in the short run, is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. An increase in the value of the U.S. dollar could lead to tighter financial conditions, though we don’t believe this will be enough to push the U.S. into a recession.

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CM Outlook for Oil - January 2016

By year’s end and into 2017, we expect the world will face an undersupply of oil and tighter inventory with little to no spare capacity. This in turn should drive oil prices higher. Our best estimate is that the price of oil ends the year close to $70. With a 90% correlation between the oil service index and the price of oil, we believe, under this scenario, energy stocks will outperform many sectors of the market in 2016 and even more so in 2017.

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