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For the U.S. economy, we believe the largest impact of the UK leaving the EU, at least in the short run, is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. An increase in the value of the U.S. dollar could lead to tighter financial conditions, though we don’t believe this will be enough to push the U.S. into a recession.

By year’s end and into 2017, we expect the world will face an undersupply of oil and tighter inventory with little to no spare capacity. This in turn should drive oil prices higher. Our best estimate is that the price of oil ends the year close to $70. With a 90% correlation between the oil service index and the price of oil, we believe, under this scenario, energy stocks will outperform many sectors of the market in 2016 and even more so in 2017.

Over the past nine months, the decline in the price of oil, as well as the decline in the stock prices of many energy and energy-related service companies, has caused a great deal of uncertainty for investors. The big fear among many investors today is that the U.S. energy industry will experience a repeat of the 1986 oil crash, which lasted a decade in North America. We believe it is the fear of this “repeat” that has brought many energy company valuations down to levels we have not seen since that time.

Know Your Rules of Thumb, a personal interview with Arnold Van Den Berg

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